Branded search → ARR model

What a sustained increase in branded organic search traffic is worth in new recurring revenue, and exactly how that number is built.
Working model · not a forecast
01

How this number is built

Sessions× Brand CVR→ Leads× Close rate→ Customers× ACV→ New ARR / month
Today's numbers through that chain: 4,565 sessions × 0.13% → 5.9 leads × 8.21% → 0.49 customers × £6,675 → £3,252/mo of branded search's ARR today.
02

Where each number comes from

Input
Value
Source and how solid it is
Branded sessions
4,565/mo
GA4 organic sessions to the homepage, used as a proxy for branded search, averaged across the six full months Mar–Aug 2026. Solid on the traffic data, narrower than a true query-level branded/non-branded split.
Brand CVR
0.13%
94 conversions (all demo bookings, zero trial requests) on 74,118 brand-classified sessions, roughly a 3-month window. This is the thinnest input in the model, a quiet or busy few weeks moves it a lot. That's why it's the one flexed in the sensitivity band below, not the others.
Close rate
8.21%
Lead→customer rate for organic+direct leads, cross-validated two ways (GA4 key events and HubSpot's first-conversion-event field) and they agree closely. The caveat: this is organic+direct blended, not measured for brand specifically, since no one's split it out yet.
ACV
£6,675
All New Business Closed Won deals, 2026 YTD, from the HubSpot Sales pipeline. Blended across deal sizes, not segmented by how the customer found us.
03

Try your own numbers

Defaults to the real Mar–Aug average above.
Editable — set your own goal.
%
The fragile one, see section 02.
%
Org+direct blended, not brand-only.
£
Blended, 2026 YTD.
04

Now vs target, per month

Stage
Now
Target
Change
Sessions
Leads
Customers
New ARR/mo
05

Sensitivity: if the brand CVR is off

Low
new ARR/mo, at target
12mo, sustained:
Base
new ARR/mo, at target
12mo, sustained:
High
new ARR/mo, at target
12mo, sustained:
06

Cumulative new ARR, if held for 12 months

Gross bookings from the incremental branded sessions only. No churn, no compounding traffic growth.
month 12, base case:
low base high
  1. This models a step change, held. It assumes branded sessions move from "now" to "target" and stay there every month, it does not model a ramp up or compounding traffic growth the way the sitewide CVR→ARR scenario model does.
  2. The CVR is fragile. 0.13% brand CVR comes from 94 conversions (all demo bookings, zero trial requests) across roughly three months of data. The low/base/high band uses 0.5x / 1x / 2x that figure so a single quiet or busy month doesn't read as the true rate.
  3. Close rate isn't brand-specific. 8.21% is the organic+direct blended lead→customer rate. No brand-only close rate has been measured yet, this is the closest real figure available.
  4. "Branded sessions" is the homepage proxy, not the GSC classifier. The classifier puts branded at ~86% of clicks; homepage-only is a narrower definition. Moving the input volume between the two readings will change what a "target" of 6,000 actually implies on the ground.
  5. Cumulative figures are gross new ARR added, not net of any customers lost. All figures GBP.
Built 2026-09-16 by Dan's marketing team · inputs are live, drag or type to re-run · questions on the method go to Dan